1346–1353 · Yersinia pestis

The Black Death

75 to 200 million dead across Eurasia in seven years — the deadliest pandemic ever recorded by share of population. A complete history of where it came from, how it spread, and what we now know happened.

Short answer

The Black Death killed an estimated 75 to 200 million people between 1346 and 1353 — roughly 30 to 60% of Europe’s population. It was caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, transmitted by fleas on black rats and (in its pneumonic form) by airborne droplets between humans. It originated in Central Asia in the 1330s and reached Europe via the Silk Road and the Crimea.

The death toll

75–200M

Total deaths (Eurasia)

30–60%

Europe's population

7 years

Peak phase

≈ 1 in 3

Europeans died

The estimates have wide ranges because medieval record-keeping was patchy and the bacterium killed entire communities before anything could be written down. Modern demographic modelling (Benedictow 2004, Spyrou et al. 2022) converges on ~50 million deaths in Europe alone and a similar number across the Middle East, North Africa and Asia.

Where it came from

Until 2022, the geographic origin of the pandemic was disputed. That year, a multi-institution team led by Maria Spyrou published ancient-DNA analysis of skeletons from two cemeteries in the Tian Shan foothills of Kyrgyzstan, dated 1338–1339. The genomes contained the ancestor of every later Yersinia pestis strain — the “Big Bang” from which all medieval and modern plague descends.

From Central Asia the disease moved west along Silk Road caravan routes. By October 1346 it had reached the Genoese trading colony at Caffa on the Black Sea. Genoese galleys fleeing the siege carried the disease to Messina, Sicily, and from there to the rest of Mediterranean Europe.

Timeline of the pandemic

Year	Event
1331–1334	First plague outbreaks recorded in Yuan-dynasty China.
Oct 1346	Pestilence reaches the Crimean port of Caffa (now Feodosia).
1347	Genoese ships carry the disease to Messina, Sicily, then Marseille and Genoa.
Jun 1348	Black Death reaches Paris; mortality 800/day at peak.
Nov 1348	London hit. Up to 60,000 dead by spring 1349 — half the city.
1349–1351	Norway, Sweden, northern Germany, then Moscow. Whole regions lose 25–50%.
1353	European phase ends. Outbreaks continue in waves for 300 years.
2022	Gravesites in Kyrgyzstan dated 1338–1339 confirmed as the pandemic's origin.

Social aftermath

The pandemic broke the feudal economic order across western Europe. With a third of the labour force gone, surviving peasants gained bargaining power for the first time; real wages rose 30–100% over the following decades. The Church's authority took a permanent blow, and persecutions of minorities accelerated. Many historians mark the Black Death as the end of the medieval period.

Frequently asked questions

How many people died in the Black Death?

Modern estimates put the Black Death death toll at 75 to 200 million people across Eurasia and North Africa between 1346 and 1353 — roughly 30 to 60% of Europe's pre-plague population.

What caused the Black Death?

The bacterium Yersinia pestis, confirmed by 21st-century DNA analysis. It was carried by fleas on black rats; humans were infected through flea bites (bubonic) or by inhaling droplets from infected lungs (pneumonic).

When did the Black Death start and end?

The European phase ran from 1346 to 1353. It reached Constantinople in 1347, Paris by June 1348, London by November 1348, and Scandinavia and Russia by 1351.

Where did the Black Death come from?

The strain originated in the Tian Shan mountains of present-day Kyrgyzstan in the 1330s, confirmed in 2022 by ancient-DNA studies. It spread west along the Silk Road.

Can the Black Death happen again?

Yersinia pestis still exists; the CDC records 1,000–2,000 human plague cases a year worldwide. Modern antibiotics are highly effective. A medieval-scale pandemic is essentially impossible today.

How does the Black Death compare to COVID-19?

By population share the Black Death remains incomparably deadlier: it killed roughly 1 in 3 people in its region in 7 years; COVID-19 killed roughly 1 in 400 globally over 3 years.

Pandemic

Spanish Flu 1918 — 50M dead

Disease

Bubonic plague — symptoms & cases

Disease

Cholera — cause, symptoms, 7 pandemics

Tool

PlagueAtlas home — interactive map

Informational only — not medical advice.